The purveyor of pastries and bacon rolls is a key player in the food-to-go market, with a commanding 10% share of the breakfast slot.
In the five years before the pandemic, Greggs was able to grow like for like sales (i.e. same store sales growth) at c.+5% p.a., combining this with growth in its own run store estate to grow revenue at c.+8% p.a.
Looking forward, Greggs will rely on two levers for growth. Firstly, it plans to expand its store estate by a further 150 stores a year, a big step up from the pre-covid average rate of net additions of 80 stores a year. Secondly, Greggs will attempt to increase sales per store by opening later in an attempt to penetrate the evening sitting. Time will tell if this strategy works for them.
